The company is still on a roll and doesn’t need to unveil a flashy new product at Monday’s developers conference.

BURLINGAME, Calif. — Some think Apple should build a television set. Others think Apple should consider a netbook computer. Maybe it will even build a gaming console. Apple doesn’t talk about its future products. But at least one developer creating software for the company’s iPhone thinks Apple may be in no rush to leap into new businesses.

And considering Apple’s ( AAPL – news – people ) shares are up nearly 70% this year, Tapulous Chief Executive Bart Decrem has a point. His take: Expect Apple to double down on its hits, rather than spreading its bets around. Tapulous is the company behind “Tap Tap Revolution,” one of the iPhone’s most popular applications (see “Tapping Into iPhone Games”).
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Apple has plenty to do with the iPhone right now. The Cupertino, Calif.-based company has been signing distribution deals for the iPhone at a frantic pace. And the company is working with more than 25,000 developers to manage the release of an ambitious new operating system and development platform for the phone. Apple may see no need to take on more right now. “Apple has been pretty conservative about how they build out a family of products,” Decrem says.

Decrem has history on his side. After Apple introduced the original iPod in October 2001, it waited until January 2004 to add a second model to its lineup. By then, Apple was on its third iteration of the original iPod. Likewise, Apple may opt to introduce new models to its two-year-old iPhone line at a deliberate pace in an effort to grab as much of the smart phone market as it can, rather than chasing wild new opportunities. “My fundamental belief is that Apple will broaden its lead in the next few months,” Decrem says. “They may grab a huge share of next-generation mobile.”

Then there’s the online rumor mill, for what that’s worth. With just hours to go before Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference begins Monday in San Francisco, a number of blogs are claiming the iPhone will get an upgrade, not a makeover. Among the most talked about new features: a faster processor, more memory and new applications such as a compass and the ability to record video. Some blogs were even circulating photos of what could be Apple’s next iPhone.

In fact, the biggest news Monday might not be a product at all. If Steve Jobs makes a cameo appearance–he’s been on a medical leave since January–Apple can afford to play it cool, because the rest of us surely won’t.

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SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) – A surprise appearance by Apple Inc Chief Executive Steve Jobs at the company’s annual developer conference could boost its stock on Monday, but his absence might trigger a bigger move in the other direction.

The Wall Street Journal kicked off speculation of an early return by the ailing Jobs, who had said he would be out until the end of June. Blogs and other media jumped on the report that the CEO could appear at Apple’s Worldwide Developer Conference in San Francisco on Monday.

Jobs, 54, the quintessential man in black, founded Apple, rescued it from mediocrity in the late 1990s, launched the iPod and the iPhone and is seen as its heart and soul.
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Canaccord Adams analyst Peter Misek sees a rally of 1 to 5 percent in Apple’s stock if Jobs makes an appearance, but no downside if he doesn’t.

Global Equities Research senior analyst Trip Chowdhry said Apple’s stock will likely remain high if Jobs appears, but could sell off as much as 10 percent if he doesn’t, a scenario he finds more likely.

But the company’s strong performance while Jobs has been recuperating indicates he is no longer crucial to the company’s success, Broadpoint AmTech analyst Brian Marshall said.

Stock in the Cupertino-based company closed at $144.67, about 85 percent ahead of January’s 52-week low of $78.20. But it was up less than 1 percent on Friday after news that Jobs might return early.

“It’s not just about Steve Jobs,” Marshall said. Investors are “very comfortable” with Chief Operating Officer Tim Cook as Apple’s next CEO, he added.

BMO Capital Markets analyst Keith Bachman said a Jobs cameo would strengthen Apple shares, but less than in the past.

“If he made a cameo appearance on Monday and the wind didn’t blow right through him, the stock would go up,” he said, but the size of the rally would depend on other factors such as announcements regarding Apple’s iPhone.

Apple’s stock is historically volatile during the company’s June developer conference. It dropped about 7 percent over the course of the conference in 2008 and about 4 percent in 2007.

“If this had happened one or two years before, the stock would have (had) huge volatility. But I think investors are conditioned to the fact that Steve’s health is a variable that needs to be dealt with on an ongoing basis,” Bachman said.

Apple managers are trying to coordinate Jobs’ return with a product launch or public event, the Journal reported, but cited sources that Jobs is “one real sick guy.”

AllThingsD, a website dedicated to “news, analysis and opinion about the digital revolution,” speculated that Jobs, who is known for ending presentations with “one more thing,” might himself be the surprise at the Monday keynote.

Wired.com reported that such a Jobs’ appearance would be “dramatic” and a “crowd pleaser,” but Gawker cautioned that Apple might not want a sickly leader on stage.

“The CEO is notoriously headstrong about these sorts of things. If he wants to show up on Monday, he will,” Gawker said.

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It appears as if Steve Jobs will indeed return to Apple by the end of June after taking a six-month leave from the company. The world is watching to see whether he’ll make a surprise appearance at WWDC next week, though many believe he’s saving that surprise for another time.

Apple CEO Steve Jobs is reportedly on track to return to Apple full-time later this month, right on schedule. Insiders speaking to The Wall Street Journal claim that Jobs’ recovery is “coming along” and that Apple’s directors have been receiving weekly updates since Jobs took leave in January. Whether or not we’ll see him at next week’s WWDC keynote, however, remains up in the air.

“He was one real sick guy,” one of the WSJ’s sources said. “Fundamentally he was starving to death over a nine-month period. He couldn’t digest protein. [But] he took corrective action.”

The iconic CEO has been on medical leave for the last five months after endless speculation about his weight and overall health. Indeed, Jobs was looking a little frail during Apple’s iPod and notebook events in the fall of 2008, and he first tried to address the issue by publicly acknowledging a “hormonal imbalance” in early January. At that time, Jobs said that he had no plans to step aside as CEO of the company and that he had already begun treatment.

Just nine days later, however, Jobs sent out another public letter saying that his health issues were “more complex” than he originally thought and that he would be on medical leave from Apple until June. In his place would be Apple COO Tim Cook, though Jobs said he would remain involved in major strategic decisions while on leave. Needless to say, this announcement sent the entire tech community into a flurry of rumors and speculation about whether Jobs would ever return to Apple and what it would mean for the company.

Since then, we have heard relatively little about Jobs’ progress except for some brief acknowledgments by Cook during two of the company’s quarterly financial calls. Both times, Apple emphasized that Jobs still expected to return in June. A number of Apple employees also relayed last week that Jobs had been spotted around campus, bolstering confidence that he was indeed preparing to return soon. So, the WSJ’s report isn’t exactly shocking.

What is up for debate is whether Jobs will pop in during Monday’s keynote at WWDC, to be delivered by Phil Schiller and gang. Apple fans are dying for this to happen, though numerous analysts have expressed doubt that such a spectacle will come to pass.

For the record, we agree with the analysts—a Jobs appearance at Monday’s keynote would be welcome but almost too expected, not to mention early. A better theory would be that Jobs will make a surprise appearance near the launch of the as-yet-unannounced next-gen iPhone (admittedly, we jacked this theory from former Apple PR guru Anuj Nayar, but it truly is the best one). Either way, it’s clear at this point that Jobs will definitely be making a comeback to the company, and he undoubtedly has “one more thing” up his sleeve.

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